In last month’s edition of the Race, Jobs and the Economy series, we explored whether the 6-figure job gains seen in January were either a sign that the labor market was about to experience a turnaround or simply a fluke. It seems the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report provides an answer. The economy shedded 92,000 jobs in February, with many industries, including the booming healthcare sector, losing jobs. That is quite a reversal, though not exactly in a positive direction.
Furthermore, in each of the last 13 months, job numbers have been revised down, totaling over 700,000 jobs lost. This past December alone, job gains were revised downward by over 60,000 to -17,000 jobs. This means that the jobs market contracted in 5 out of the last 9 months – hardly a sign that a turnaround is imminent.
With hiring at a virtual standstill, less than 16% of workers plan on leaving their jobs for greener pastures. Pay growth for those who decided to change jobs fell to its lowest rate since 2021. One could say that the grass isn’t as green as it once was on the other side.
The unemployment rates for Black and Asian workers also rose 7.7% and 4.8%, respectively. For Asian workers, this represents a multi-year high. Despite these increases, the overall unemployment rate has stayed below 4.5% for over 2 years, largely due to the low but stable unemployment rate for White Americans.
A new report from AI company Anthropic analyzed the impact of AI on jobs and its automation of certain tasks. It found that the profile of the worker most exposed to AI displacement are often older, highly educated, well-paid women. The report adds to the growing research showing that women are significantly more at risk of AI-driven job displacement than men. Beyond the implications for gender equality, the report finds that for young workers slow hiring rather than layoffs is the biggest problem they face.
Despite predictions from AI leaders about the technology’s existential impact on employment, especially for entry-level jobs, most companies have not seen a demonstrable impact from AI. According to a survey of 6,000 CEOs of US and European companies, over 80% reported no positive impact on employment or productivity via the emergent technology. Bridgewater Associates has made a similar point that AI capital expenditures will have little impact on the labor market. Nevertheless, unemployment among new college graduates shows no signs of decreasing, as internship opportunities and entry-level work dry up in some cities, with whispers of AI as the culprit.
On the last day of February, the United States, in collaboration with Israel, launched a series of airstrikes on Iran. In response, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage of water that 20% of the world’s oil passes through. As a result, crude oil prices jumped by 25%, with gasoline prices rising 17% in the United States alone. Though the war has no clear end in sight (nor a clear rationale), the consequences for ordinary Americans could be severe. Beyond oil prices, food and airline fares could rise as fuel costs increase. Additionally, the war has put a drag on the stock market, in which tens of millions of people’s retirement accounts are invested.
So far, the labor market remains frozen, with low unemployment rates being the only saving grace. Only time will tell if this will be the new normal or a prequel to an impending horror show. One indicator to watch though is the direction of job openings, with the next release of that data coming in a few weeks. In the meantime, all eyes will be on consumer prices as the war with Iran and the President’s 15% global tariffs collide, potentially putting a tremendous strain on ordinary people’s wallets.
Joseph Dean is the Racial Economic Research Specialist with NCRC’s Research team.
Photo credit: RDNE Stock project via Pexels.
